We are one month away and Republicans are surging forward. In fact, for the first time, I am really beginning to think a Republican control of the Senate is entirely feasible. Based on current polls, with toss-ups (any race where the polling is within 5 points either way) going 50-50, party control of the House and Senate should look like this:
Senate
51-49 Democrats
House
226-209 Republicans
Since a month ago, a few of the races have really started to take shape. Both Republicans and Democrats have increased their number of solid leads by 2. The real shake-up, though is in the leaning category. Only one race remains in the "Lean Democrat" category. 6 are in the "Lean Republican" category. If they all go the direction they lean, that puts it at 48 Democrats and 46 Republicans with the following races deciding party control (with the latest average polling numbers):
California
(D) Barbara Boxer - 48%
(R) Carly Fiorina - 44%
Colorado
(R) Ken Buck - 48%
(D) Michael Bennet - 44%
Illinois
(R) Mark Kirk - 41%
(D) Alexi Giannoulias - 41%
Nevada
(D) Harry Reid - 45%
(R) Sharron Angle - 44%
Washington
(D) Patty Murray - 50%
(R) Dino Rossi - 47%
West Virginia
(R) John Raese - 47%
(D) Joe Manchin - 43%
Obviously, any of these races could go either way. They are close enough that any slight last-minute change in momentum could make the difference. Most are within the margin of error for the polls, anyway. But, considering these are averages, let's just pretend that they are more accurate than a single poll. Let's narrow down our window of interest from 5% being too close to call to 2%. That would put California and Washington in the Democrats' column and Colorado and West Virginia in the Republicans' column, making it now 50-48 with Illinois and Nevada needing to both go Republican to split the Senate. If you consider both of them 50-50, then that would be about a 25% likelihood.
Ok, now why has this month been a good one for Republicans? Well, that is most likely a very difficult question to answer. It is also difficult to say whether that momentum will continue for the next month. If it does, though and the same change that took place over the last few months continues over the next month, Republicans will be right on the verge of taking the Senate.
A few things to keep in mind... The advantage on election day tends to go with the candidate who is surging. They generally outperform their polling numbers. Momentum is very important in elections. Additionally, Republicans have been outperforming Democrats dramatically in polls that use a likely voter rubric as opposed to a voting age rubric. This is because Republicans are much more excited about these elections than Democrats and are more likely to show up to vote. Has this been overestimated or underestimated in these polls? That is hard to know, but I tend to think that general excitement and enthusiasm is hard to measure and will generally be underrepresented in polls. Rasmussen has caught a lot of flack for over-representing Republicans because of their reliance on likely voters. Indeed, if Rasmussen was the only polling agency used, Republicans would have much better projections than I present here. Still, I think that they may be more accurate than many are wanting to admit.
All in all, Republicans should be excited about the elections coming up in a month. Democrats should be shaking in their boots. The House is going Republican. It is going to go hard Republican. The Senate, on the other hand, is going to be tight.
Senate
51-49 Democrats
House
226-209 Republicans
Since a month ago, a few of the races have really started to take shape. Both Republicans and Democrats have increased their number of solid leads by 2. The real shake-up, though is in the leaning category. Only one race remains in the "Lean Democrat" category. 6 are in the "Lean Republican" category. If they all go the direction they lean, that puts it at 48 Democrats and 46 Republicans with the following races deciding party control (with the latest average polling numbers):
California
(D) Barbara Boxer - 48%
(R) Carly Fiorina - 44%
Colorado
(R) Ken Buck - 48%
(D) Michael Bennet - 44%
Illinois
(R) Mark Kirk - 41%
(D) Alexi Giannoulias - 41%
Nevada
(D) Harry Reid - 45%
(R) Sharron Angle - 44%
Washington
(D) Patty Murray - 50%
(R) Dino Rossi - 47%
West Virginia
(R) John Raese - 47%
(D) Joe Manchin - 43%
Obviously, any of these races could go either way. They are close enough that any slight last-minute change in momentum could make the difference. Most are within the margin of error for the polls, anyway. But, considering these are averages, let's just pretend that they are more accurate than a single poll. Let's narrow down our window of interest from 5% being too close to call to 2%. That would put California and Washington in the Democrats' column and Colorado and West Virginia in the Republicans' column, making it now 50-48 with Illinois and Nevada needing to both go Republican to split the Senate. If you consider both of them 50-50, then that would be about a 25% likelihood.
Ok, now why has this month been a good one for Republicans? Well, that is most likely a very difficult question to answer. It is also difficult to say whether that momentum will continue for the next month. If it does, though and the same change that took place over the last few months continues over the next month, Republicans will be right on the verge of taking the Senate.
A few things to keep in mind... The advantage on election day tends to go with the candidate who is surging. They generally outperform their polling numbers. Momentum is very important in elections. Additionally, Republicans have been outperforming Democrats dramatically in polls that use a likely voter rubric as opposed to a voting age rubric. This is because Republicans are much more excited about these elections than Democrats and are more likely to show up to vote. Has this been overestimated or underestimated in these polls? That is hard to know, but I tend to think that general excitement and enthusiasm is hard to measure and will generally be underrepresented in polls. Rasmussen has caught a lot of flack for over-representing Republicans because of their reliance on likely voters. Indeed, if Rasmussen was the only polling agency used, Republicans would have much better projections than I present here. Still, I think that they may be more accurate than many are wanting to admit.
All in all, Republicans should be excited about the elections coming up in a month. Democrats should be shaking in their boots. The House is going Republican. It is going to go hard Republican. The Senate, on the other hand, is going to be tight.
