Finally, I have taken the time to plug all of the latest polls and primary results into my spreadsheet and have come up with some new November predictions!
Republicans are looking healthier than ever for the midterms. My prediction now shows Republicans leading in 45 Senate races with 6 races too close to call. Obviously, that leaves Democrats with leads in 49 races.
The 6 toss up states are:
California (Boxer-D up by 2)
Colorado (Buck-R up by 1)
Illinois (Kirk-R up by 2)
Nevada (Reid-D up by 2)
Washington (Rossi-R up by 1)
Wisconsin (Feingold-D up by 1)
Obviously, any of these races could go either way. If they were to split 3-3, we would have a very interesting situation on our hands with Democrats taking a 52-48 edge in the Senate. Remember, though, that Joe Lieberman is technically an Independent and he is counted in that 52. Additionally, there are several blue-dog Democrats that the Republicans could pull their way in close votes. If you thought it was tough for Democrats to get things passed with a 59 seat majority, just wait until it's 52!
And, then you have the House. This is where Republicans are looking really, really good. We are very realistically looking at an historic election in November in the House. Based on RealClearPolitics categorization of the House elections, Republicans lead in 205 races. Democrats lead in 193. That leaves 37 toss-ups. If those 37 toss-ups go 50-50 in November, which is frankly generous to Democrats due to the momentum Republicans are building up across the country, we are looking at a new majority of 223-212 for the Republicans. That would be a pick-up of 45 seats! For perspective, the Republican Revolution in 1994 saw Republicans pick up 54 seats. With those 37 toss-ups, though, Republican could potentially gain anywhere from 27-64 seats.
At this point, I feel pretty comfortable in saying that Republicans will gain control of the House. Many things could happen between now and November, but it is hard to imagine a scenario in which Democrats turn things around before then.
I am not the only one who thinks so, either. Nate Silver, who has taken his FiveThirtyEight blog over to the New York Times, recently estimated that Republicans have a 2-in-3 chance of taking the House.
Stay tuned as I continue to evaluate the polls as November draws closer. I will also be working on some other thoughts to post over the next few weeks regarding Republican strategy and maybe even an early round-up of the 2012 Presidential field.
Republicans are looking healthier than ever for the midterms. My prediction now shows Republicans leading in 45 Senate races with 6 races too close to call. Obviously, that leaves Democrats with leads in 49 races.
The 6 toss up states are:
California (Boxer-D up by 2)
Colorado (Buck-R up by 1)
Illinois (Kirk-R up by 2)
Nevada (Reid-D up by 2)
Washington (Rossi-R up by 1)
Wisconsin (Feingold-D up by 1)
Obviously, any of these races could go either way. If they were to split 3-3, we would have a very interesting situation on our hands with Democrats taking a 52-48 edge in the Senate. Remember, though, that Joe Lieberman is technically an Independent and he is counted in that 52. Additionally, there are several blue-dog Democrats that the Republicans could pull their way in close votes. If you thought it was tough for Democrats to get things passed with a 59 seat majority, just wait until it's 52!
And, then you have the House. This is where Republicans are looking really, really good. We are very realistically looking at an historic election in November in the House. Based on RealClearPolitics categorization of the House elections, Republicans lead in 205 races. Democrats lead in 193. That leaves 37 toss-ups. If those 37 toss-ups go 50-50 in November, which is frankly generous to Democrats due to the momentum Republicans are building up across the country, we are looking at a new majority of 223-212 for the Republicans. That would be a pick-up of 45 seats! For perspective, the Republican Revolution in 1994 saw Republicans pick up 54 seats. With those 37 toss-ups, though, Republican could potentially gain anywhere from 27-64 seats.
At this point, I feel pretty comfortable in saying that Republicans will gain control of the House. Many things could happen between now and November, but it is hard to imagine a scenario in which Democrats turn things around before then.
I am not the only one who thinks so, either. Nate Silver, who has taken his FiveThirtyEight blog over to the New York Times, recently estimated that Republicans have a 2-in-3 chance of taking the House.
Stay tuned as I continue to evaluate the polls as November draws closer. I will also be working on some other thoughts to post over the next few weeks regarding Republican strategy and maybe even an early round-up of the 2012 Presidential field.
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