Election eve for the 2010 Midterm elections is finally here. I have tweaked my calculations a bit to reflect the nearness of elections. First of all, I have reduced the margin necessary to classify races. Now, if a candidate's polling average is 3 to 7 points ahead of the opponent(s), they are classified as a lean. A margin of 8 or more points, is classified as a solid lead. This tweak is meant to account for the reduced possibility for change between now and the election. Additionally, while most races have utilized an average of 3 or sometimes even 2 of the most recent polls, the relative abundance of polling data as we draw nearer to election day has allowed for the inclusion of 4 polls in all Senate races. This should provide a more accurate measure of how races stand. With these tweaks in mind, here are my final projections for the 2010 Midterm elections, assuming leans go as projected and dead heat races (those with a margin of 2 or less in the Senate or categorized as Toss-Ups by RealClearPolitics) split 50-50:
Senate
Democrats - 50.5
Republicans - 49.5
House
Republicans - 245.5
Democrats - 189.5
The tidal wave of momentum in the House over recent weeks and months has crested at the perfect moment and it appears House Republicans are poised to have an electoral victory of historic proportions. These projections show Republicans picking up 67.5 seats. The Republican Revolution of 1994 only awarded Republicans a pick up of 53 seats. You have to go all the way back to 1948 when Democrats picked up 74 seats to find a larger seat swing than is currently projected for Republicans. Keep in mind, this is a very modest projection, splitting the toss-up races 50-50. In fact, there are 43 toss up races which indicate a a potential range of seat pick-ups from 46 to 89 seats for Republicans! Another important milestone that Republicans have passed is that every single toss-up race can go to the Democrats and Republicans will still gain control of the House. At this point, the question is not whether or not Republicans take control, but just how strong that control is.
In the Senate, the Republican momentum seems to have hit a plateau right at a 50-50 split. As it stands, Democrats are poised to win 50 and Republicans 49 with the Senate race in Washington being the one race too close to call. If Washington does go the Republican's way, a split Senate could make Joe Lieberman one of the most powerful people in Washington, D.C. He will be courted very strongly by Republicans to caucus with Republicans, which would give Republicans a 51-49 advantage. Still, as Democrats have demonstrated over the past year, a simple majority in the Senate is nearly meaningless. At the very least, nothing will be able to pass through the Senate.
Well, the time for projections is over. I will be back tomorrow night to compare the results that are in to these final projections and see just how accurate they are. Stay tuned, folks. It's going to be a wild night!
Senate
Democrats - 50.5
Republicans - 49.5
House
Republicans - 245.5
Democrats - 189.5
The tidal wave of momentum in the House over recent weeks and months has crested at the perfect moment and it appears House Republicans are poised to have an electoral victory of historic proportions. These projections show Republicans picking up 67.5 seats. The Republican Revolution of 1994 only awarded Republicans a pick up of 53 seats. You have to go all the way back to 1948 when Democrats picked up 74 seats to find a larger seat swing than is currently projected for Republicans. Keep in mind, this is a very modest projection, splitting the toss-up races 50-50. In fact, there are 43 toss up races which indicate a a potential range of seat pick-ups from 46 to 89 seats for Republicans! Another important milestone that Republicans have passed is that every single toss-up race can go to the Democrats and Republicans will still gain control of the House. At this point, the question is not whether or not Republicans take control, but just how strong that control is.
In the Senate, the Republican momentum seems to have hit a plateau right at a 50-50 split. As it stands, Democrats are poised to win 50 and Republicans 49 with the Senate race in Washington being the one race too close to call. If Washington does go the Republican's way, a split Senate could make Joe Lieberman one of the most powerful people in Washington, D.C. He will be courted very strongly by Republicans to caucus with Republicans, which would give Republicans a 51-49 advantage. Still, as Democrats have demonstrated over the past year, a simple majority in the Senate is nearly meaningless. At the very least, nothing will be able to pass through the Senate.
Well, the time for projections is over. I will be back tomorrow night to compare the results that are in to these final projections and see just how accurate they are. Stay tuned, folks. It's going to be a wild night!
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