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Friday, February 26

CPAC 2010: Day 2 (part two)

Ok… now to pick up where we left off… I will start out with the panel on healthcare.

Dr. Eric Novak

Dr. Novak opened by saying that health reform is needed and that there can be no doubt about that.  Still, he said, “patients’ right to choose must be their own.” He is pushing for the Healthcare Freedom Act (more information can be found at www.ushealthfreedomcoallition.com). The basic tenets of this are that people should be free to choose any healthcare facility and that they should not be forced into any insurance plan, which, by the way, is forced under President Obama’s most recent healthcare proposal.  There will be a yearly fee of hundreds of dollars assessed to anybody that doesn’t have health insurance.  The Healthcare Freedom Act has actually had considerable legislative success already at the state level.  Dr. Novak showed a map of all the states that had considered and passed the bill and it was very encouraging.

Dr. Hal Scherz

Dr. Scherz founded a group called Docs for Patient Care (www.docs4patientcare.org).  He had the crazy idea that Doctors should talk with their own patients about the healthcare system and what reforms would be helpful to them.  He asks all of his patients if he can take two minutes to talk to them about healthcare reform at the end of all of his visits.  Through this experience, along with the experiences of other doctors that have joined this organization, they have put together some practical ideas.  The central idea that he pushed in his talk at the conference was to take medical malpractice suits out of civil courts and put them in specialty courts.  I think it’s a very interesting idea.

Chris Chocola

Chocola, President of the Club for Growth and former member of Congress, spoke a little bit about the crowd-favorite need for the Republicans to come home to their conservative ideals.  He began by asking if the Republicans would really enact conservative policy.  “I am not convinced.”

He asked how Republicans could regain the trust of the people and then delivered a line that really serves as a pretty good summary of the whole weekend.

“Every year, conservatives come back to Republicans.  This year, I think it is time for Republicans to come back to conservatives.”

Of course, the crowd liked that.

Rep. Michele Bachmann - Minnesota

A favorite of liberals all over the world, this fire breather knew how to light up the crowd at CPAC.  She said she wanted to focus on how the people in the audience could do their part to win upcoming elections.  She focused on the power of persuasion and the need of one-on-one campaigns where people aim to win votes one conversation at a time.  It reminded me of talking with members of my fraternity about the best way to recruit new members.  It’s all about personal contact.

She talked about the reverse town hall held in North Dakota where 1,000-1,500 people stood up and told their public officials what they thought about the issues of the day.  She said the comments were very thoughtful and well articulated and she was proud.

She then moved on to the Democratic agenda.  She said that the central problem with government control is the lack of choice that it permits for people.  She repeated the stat quoted by another speaker before her, that 30% of private industry was now owned by the federal government under President Obama.  She stressed that, if the healthcare and energy sectors were added, that number would be up to 57%.

She told the story of Levi Preston, a veteran of the Revolutionary War, who was once asked what drove them to war with Britain.  His response was, “We always governed ourselves, and we always meant to.”

She continued with story after story of Americans who highlighted the struggle for liberty and freedom.  She bordered at times on getting a little bit too emotional.  She basically made Democratic policy out to be the enemy of anything and everything that America has ever stood for.  Not that there isn’t something to it, but she may have taken it a little too far with the stories and rhetoric.

She knew her crowd, though, and got several standing ovations throughout her speech.

Steve Poizner – California

The candidate for governor in California began by talking about the need for conservatism in his home state.  He highlighted the exploding deficits and high taxes.

He spent a considerable amount of time talking about the water shortage situation in California.  He said that this problem is not natural, it’s the result of the ruling of an unelected federal judge legislating from the bench.  He then said that, if elected, he would use the power of the state to sue the federal judge over the ruling and take it all the way to the Supreme Court to get a ruling on whether or not the states have the right to control their own natural resources.

Chuck DeVore – California

In a previous blog post, I highlighted the California Senate Race for the seat currently held by Barbara Boxer.  Chuck DeVore, if you’ll recall, is the Tea Party favorite in the race and appeared on Glenn Beck’s television program where he looked right at home.

He said that California is a laboratory for the liberal left.  The California law on greenhouse gases was a precursor for what Barbara Boxer and the EPA are now trying to do at the federal level.  He said the results can already be seen in California, where they have the 4th highest unemployment among the states.

John Ashcroft

This where CPAC began to get interesting.  You see, Ron Paul would be the closing speaker that day and his fans were rapidly filling the hotel.  John Ashcroft, one of the architects behind the Patriot Act and its implementation while Bush was in office, is not exactly their favorite person.

Well, it started out well enough.  Ashcroft gave a speech that was very reasonable.  He said that the people impose their values on government, not the other way around.  He implored the crowd, “Don’t stop, don’t let up.”  He went on to explain his views on the supposed conflict between liberty and security.  “I reject the formulation,” he said, “of balancing security and liberty.” Instead, he believes that security gives value to liberty and that, without security, there can be no liberty.

Presented with the “Defender of the Constitution” Award, the proceedings seemed to be going just fine.

Then, the next panel, consisting of 2008 Libertarian Party Candidate Bob Barr, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, Rep Dan Lungren (R-CA and one of the chief defenders of the Patriot Act) and Viet Dinh of the Georgetown University Law Center and moderated by Dr. Jay Sekulow of the ACLJ, began its debate.

It got very tense, to say the least.  Words were exchanged and the crowd got into it.  There were plenty of mixtures of applause and boos as the conservative/libertarian factions began to appear.

Some really good points were made on both sides.  Ultimately, what it came down to was the argument that John Ashcroft had spoken of earlier.  Gilmore and Barr sided with liberty and used the word as often as they could because the Libertarian elements of the crowd seemed to swoon just as you would expect an Obama crowd to swoon over hope and change.  Lungren and Dinh made the same point that Ashcroft had made a few minutes earlier, that liberty is not possible without security, and that they believed the Patriot Act included sufficient checks on the ability of anybody to abuse their power.  They also made it clear that these were enemy combatants not protected by the same Constitutional rights that we possess.  That, in the modern world, traditional rules don’t apply because there is such a blurred line between a soldier and a citizen and the battle lines aren’t what they used to be.

What continues to be missing in this argument, in my opinion, are the examples.  Why doesn’t anybody ever talk about examples of abuse? It’s always the potential for abuse.  Well, if there are examples of the system being abused, then let’s talk about it and how we can prevent it from happening again.  I’m not saying there aren’t examples out there, I just wish that somebody in these debates would talk about it.  Too often, it just becomes a shouting fest swamped in rhetoric and that is exactly what led to the tensions that finally spilled over.

To close the panel, John Ashcroft came back out to the podium and tried to say that both sides had their points but once again reiterated the need for security for liberty to exist.  Then, he was interrupted by a woman recording the event from the stairs on one side of the room.  She screamed something loud enough that it disrupted what Ashcroft was saying and caused quite a bit of commotion afterwards.  I wish I could have understood what she said well enough to write down the exact exchange but, alas, my ears are not the best out there.  You can be sure, though, that it was an idealistic statement of liberty over everything else.

Anyway, Ashcroft proceeded about as well as he could and closed by saying, “My time is out and her time is past.”

Laura Roth

Ok, she was just an emcee, not a speaker, but I had to include something about her.  She was AWFUL. I guess she hits some kind of market on her radio show, but she just comes across as an angry person wanting to pick a fight.  She did nothing but bash Democrats with baseless ad hominem attacks.  She was like a living spam e-mail.  Did you know that President Obama refuses to salute the flag and doesn’t like the “Star-Spangled Banner”?  I’m serious… she went there and more that I didn’t care to listen to.

Rep. Darrell Issa – California

I guess somebody decided CPAC would be a good place to shove it in Democrats’ faces that we had people in their backyards.  There were so many speakers from places like California, Minnesota, and Massachusetts… it was weird.

Anyway, Rep. Issa didn’t say an awful lot of substance, but the main point I took away from his speech was the connection between the President and ACORN.

You know, I’ve never paid much attention to the ACORN stuff because I figured it was just another one of those distractions people like to blame when they should really be focusing on the real thing: we just plain got beat because we did a terrible job of governing for a decade.  But, the next panel really made me think.

Saving Freedom from Vote Fraud

This panel, including Anita MonCrief, a former ACORN employee, presented some compelling evidence that there really is some funny business going on.  President Obama is clearly very integrally associated with the organization.  They played a video of him going on and on about how he was on their side in a conversation with ACORN directors of some sort.  Of course, that doesn’t mean anything. 

In case you are like me and just haven’t paid much attention to this whole ACORN thing, it is a group that claims to represent communities, one of their chief missions being to register people to vote.  Although, they seem to play favorites as to what types of people it likes to register and it doesn’t seem to pay a whole lot of attention to whether or not they are actually eligible. 

Apparently, Ms. MonCrief (http://anitamoncrief.blogspot.com), collected a lot of information while she worked there showing consistent, organized efforts to register as many people that agreed with their stances as possible, purposefully creating a mess for somebody else to sort out later.  They apparently put a lot of effort into finding all of the intricate details of registration laws in the various states and taking advantage of everything the can.

All of this wouldn’t really concern me an awful lot because they are simply doing what they should be doing… they are registering people.  Somebody else should do their job and check the registration rolls and make sure everybody is actually eligible.  The only problem is that ACORN receives federal funding… to the tune of $53 million under the Bush administration according to this panel.

They made a good point by quoting Chris Dodd in saying that every election law “should make it eaiser to vote, harder to cheat.”  I agree whole-heartedly, but surely the federal government should not take it upon itself to fund registration efforts, especially so blatantly partisan ones.

Another thing the panel concentrated on was the need to focus on more groups than just ACORN.  Because of all of the negative publicity, it appears ACORN groups across the country are shutting down but they aren’t going away.  They are just changing names and continuing business as usual.  They said that people should keep an eye out and contact their local officials and find out just who is registering voters in their counties.

Rep. Tom Price – Georgia

Introduced by Dr. Ed Feulner of The Heritage Foundation who touted the Mount Vernon Statement which defines a Constitutional conservative, Rep. Price is heavily involved in the Republican Study Committee.

Rep. Price then delivered a good line for the crowd.  In response to Nancy Pelosi calling the Tea Partiers un-American, he said, “Don’t you fly over our country in your luxury jet and tell us what is American!”

He repeated the familiar “no” chant championing the “party of no” label.

At this point, I think the Ron Paul fans were about ready to explode.  I’m sure sitting and waiting for a few minutes was too much for many of them but several hours was simply too long for them to be quiet so they once again became a little disruptive.

Two-Minute Activists

Then, one of the more unique moments of CPAC, was the presentation of several conservative activists from colleges across the country, though most were centered in the DC area.  It was a really weird thing because each of them was allotted two minutes to talk about what they had done and each had a cheering section from their school when they were introduced.  There was just a real college feel to the whole thing, which I guess makes sense.

The big thing to come out of it, though, was a statement in support of GOPride, a conservative gay rights group which was allowed to sponsor CPAC 2010 causing a lot of controversy.  It caused a mixed reaction in the crowd, but the Ron Paul fanatics enjoyed it.

Then, a few speakers later, one of the activists took his allotted time to condemn CPAC for accepting the sponsorship of GOPride and railed against the abomination of homosexuality.  The boos from the Ron Paul fans were incredibly loud, so much so that most of what the student said on stage was drowned out.  It was a really surreal moment to have somebody booed off the stage at CPAC for speaking out against homosexual marriage.  I’m sure some of the older elements of the crowd were wondering what in the world was going on.

Rep. Ron Paul – Texas

Then the messiah of the libertarian movement, Ron Paul, came to the stage.  It is really crazy how similar his followers are to the followers of President Obama… so much raw passion.

I really respect Ron Paul a lot.  I really do.  I think that the United States House of Representatives could use 20 more Ron Pauls… but I wouldn’t want any more than that.  At some point, you have to be willing to govern and you have to know how to formulate a foreign policy.

Ron Paul’s speech was basically a campaign speech, at least it would have been one if he was running against Woodrow Wilson.  He railed against the policies of Wilson, including the passage of the 16th Amendment which allows for an income tax.  He said that we should repeal it.  I am all for that.  He talked about how Wilson created the Federal Reserve and that we should “End the Fed” which seems to be another catch phrase for Paul supporters who chanted it all day long, usually in a very disruptive fashion.  I think that it is an option that certainly deserves discussion.  He also talked about his bread and butter issue, the gold standard.  Now that, I’m not so sure about.  But then, he talked about how Wilson supposedly arrested hundreds of people simply for disagreeing with his policies and for no other reason.  It’s a story I’ve never heard before and would like to hear more about.  Still, I find it’s relevancy to be a little thin.  I’m sure he was trying to draw a connection to the Patriot Act, but I don’t think anybody would claim that it has been used to round up political dissidents.

Then, he tried to define a true conservative foreign policy of non-interventionism which once again harkens back to the days of Wilson because it died after it was blamed for the escalation of World War II…

It’s as if he really believes that nobody would ever mess with us if we just minded our own business over here on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.  Nevermind the fact that two towers, a defense building, and a plane all fell down almost ten years ago because a few people on the other side of the globe had declared war on the United States.  Even if you want to claim that we started it with our interventionism at the end of World War II, which is a very feeble argument to be made, you can’t put the genie back in the bottle.  Does anybody think that if we just picked up our things and came home that the rest of the world would stop hating us? Does anybody think that terrorists would stop trying to kill our citizens?

It’s just not a real-world view of foreign policy.  That is why we cannot afford too many Ron Pauls.  Still, he is a passionate ideologue who mixes things up and throws out different ideas.  We need more people like him in Congress.

Conclusion

It was a very intense day, as I hope you could pick up from my summary.  Still, it was a very educational and entertaining day.  Tomorrow, I will try to get all of Day 3 up and finish up my summary of CPAC 2010!

Wednesday, February 24

CPAC 2010: Day 2 (part one)

I got off to a little bit of a late start on CPAC day two.  I had assumed that the conference would start at the same time every day.  I was wrong.  While Thursday began at 9:45, Friday and Saturday started at 8:30.  I don’t really understand those starting times, but I suppose they had to fit all the speakers in somehow.

Luckily, all I missed was Herman Cain, a radio personality out of Georgia that I got to hear at the Young America’s Foundation Student Conference in the Summer.  He has the voice of a southern black preacher and he uses that style to his full abilities.  He gives a pretty good speech, but it is more energy than substance, at least in my experience.

Rep. Eric Cantor – Virginia

During a panel discussion on the economy, the big point of emphasis for Rep. Eric Cantor was the healthcare bill.  He shared some of his ideas on the subject, which highlighted the difference between Democratic and Republican plans.  (Yes, Republicans have their own ideas despite the Democratic talking points…)

  • Open up choices to people in healthcare
  • Open up state lines
  • Reduce frivolous lawsuits

Perhaps the most interesting point of his conversation, though, was his solution for the pre-existing conditions problem.  He suggested that states take a path where they form high risk pools from which insurance companies can draw money when they insure someone with pre-existing conditions.

It’s certainly one option and it beats simply paying for everything with tax dollars, but I still don’t like it.  As it is, premiums for everybody would still go up to pay for it, they would just go up through increased taxes or debt.

Ken Cuccinelli – Virginia

The newly-elected Attorney General spoke briefly about the EPA and how it was usurping unintended power through the miscellaneous clause in the Clean Air Act.  This, he said, could easily be amended and in fact has already seen a resolution presented in the Senate to do just that by Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski.

Cuccinelli also suggested that people would be well served to also put pressure on Attorneys General in their states to challenge the EPA endangerment finding and put a halt to its enforcement in their own states.

In case you are lost, the EPA in its “Endangerment Finding” ruled that CO2 and other greenhouse gases are pollutants subject to regulation under the Clean Air Act.  The regulations in place would have put literally a million small businesses under new regulation and the EPA didn’t have the finances or the manpower to do it.  They knew they couldn’t, so they came out with yet another finding, the “Tailoring Rule,” which tailored the application of the Clean Air Act to apply to different levels of greenhouse gases.  The problems with this are many and it has actually been the focus of much of my work at the Natural Resources Task Force at ALEC.  The “Tailoring Rule,” as it turns out, does not go into effect in states which operate their own PSD and Title V regulatory agencies which is true of around 40 states.  This means that these states have to pass separate legislation raising the standards in their own states or they will be forced to take on the burden of enforcing the crippling regulations set forth prior to the “Tailoring Rule.”  Add to all of this the fact that EPA administrators have hinted that they could implement their own market system like Cap-and-Trade without any new legislation from Congress, supposedly operating under the parameters of the Clean Air Act, and the executive branch all of a sudden, under President Obama, has complete control over this nation’s policy regarding Greenhouse Gases.

This is the loophole that Cuccinelli suggested could be closed up with one simple amendment to the Clean Air Act, removing the miscellaneous clause.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty – Minnesota

Pawlenty got off to a very light-hearted start, picking on his home state of Minnesota as an historically liberal bastion of spending and taxes.  He used this to set up the accomplishments of his own fiscally conservative agenda.

I felt his comedy may have stretched the limits a little, though, when he brought up Tiger Woods.  He said that people could take a lesson from Tiger’s wife.  Drawing a parallel to the incident that of course made headlines across the globe, he said that the people had enough of spending and that it was time for us to take a 9 iron to big government.

He made a point to say that we should be wary of all Republicans though and hold them accountable.  “This time,” he said, “we need to do what we say we’re gonna do.”

He mentioned that he had formed a PAC called the Freedom First PAC.  He clarified that the name was created purposefully to reflect his priorities.  Freedom, he believes, should be the first priority of governments.

He mentioned 4 ideas that are the focal points of what he believes:

  1. God’s in charge – we are endowed by our Creator, not governments.
  2. We can’t spend more than we have.
    • Federal government currently has an annual revenue of around $2.2 trillion
    • Federal government currently has total unfunded liabilities of around $65 trillion.
    • This crippling debt forces us to submit to places like China but he said that we are “not a beggar nation.”
  3. People spend money differently when it’s their money.
  4. Bullies prey on weakness, not strength.
    1. “No more apology tours, no more giving Miranda rights to terrorists in our country.”

Overall, it was a very strong speech and certainly kept his momentum going for 2012.

Rep. Steve King – Iowa

King chose to spend much of his time highlighting the faults within President Obama, or as he said, the “Master Mesmerizer’s” agenda.

“President Obama,” he said, “has lost his mojo.” Touting a line that seems to have caught on among some Republican circles recently though I don’t know that I like it very much, he said that we are a “constitutional republic, not a democracy.”

He noted that, in the first year of President Obama’s Presidency, approximately one third of the private sector has already been nationalized.  He said that a quick glance at the Democratic Socialists of America playbook.  If you don’t believe him, check out this from the DSA’s web site.  It actually sounds mainstream compared to some of the ideas floated out by Democrats today.

He then went on to suggest what he believed would be the right way to go about solving healthcare.  He called on Democrats to abandon their monstrocities known as comprehensive healthcare reform and instead go with stand alone legislation and let the merits of each individual proposal be decided on its own.

He also said that, if they are serious about reducing the cost of healthcare, then they have to start with lawsuit abuse reform.

While certainly a significant portion of King’s speech was the same ole rhetoric, there was certainly some meat to the bones. 

Mike Williams – Texas

Introduced as the next Senator from the state of Texas, Mike Williams kind of sticks out.  You just don’t see royal blue bow-ties very often.

A railroad commissioner, he talked about how he got his start in politics with George W. Bush who was his first campaign manager.  Interestingly enough, he lost that race.

He noted, “As government grows, freedom contracts.” This is why he made it his mission to make government operate more efficiently and to scale back its size.  While he has been railroad commissioner, which he said had absolutely nothing to do with railroads and everything to do with oil, the number of employees at the railroad commission in Texas has dropped from 950 to 750.

Particularly interesting was his ability to put his money where his mouth was.  Even though the salary of railroad commissioners had been increased while he was in office, he has refused to take any of the pay raise.  He said, “It’s easier to cut spending when your hand isn’t in the cookie jar.”

He then went into his area of expertise which, obviously, is environmental policy.  He talked about Climategate and how Democrats like to talk about pre-emptive war, but it was they who seem to engage in the “policy of pre-emptive warming.” He noted that his state of Texas was suing the EPA in a challenge of the “Endangerment Finding” previously discussed.

He made sure to clarify that he does believe that we should promote a healthy environment, but that he felt it was possible to have a healthy economy at the same time.

Noting that energy is the lifeblood of the country, he laid out 4 basic steps to a sound energy policy:

  1. Go and drill for American energy wherever it is (got a large standing ovation for that one).
  2. Bring the nukes back.
    • He noted that 75% of France’s energy supplies are nuclear-fired.
  3. Mimic what the state of Texas has done, issuing a tax credit for oil companies that will capture their own CO2 emissions and use them to push oil up out of the Earth.  Apparently this is a new innovation that has had significant success.
  4. Foster wind energy.
    • He said that we are getting incredibly close to building the storage capacity to hold the energy created from wind turbines so that we can preserve it for when we need it.  Wind, it seems, doesn’t like to blow when we need energy the most.

Rep. Mike Pence – Indiana

One of the most impressive speeches of the entire conference, in my opinion, belonged to Pence.  Although I can’t help but think of George W. Bush every time he laughs, moves his hands, or bobs his head, he is a very eloquent speaker.

He began by quoting Thomas Jefferson. “The people,” he said, “are the ultimate guardians of their own liberty.”  This had been proven to be true by the strong political backlash against the Democratic agenda.

“Republicans in Congress are back in the fight and they’re back in the fight in the right!” Scoffing at being called the party of no, he said that “Washington could use more ‘no'.”

He then got the crowd going by listing several Democratic initiatives followed by saying, “The answer is ‘no!’” Every time, the crowd shouted “No!” along with him.

Speaking of the 9/12 march on D.C., he mentioned how amazed he was to see so many thousands of people.  “These people looked like the cavalry to me.”

Borrowing a line from Ronald Reagan, with a slight alteration, he said, “A recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose your job, and a recovery is when Nancy Pelosi loses her job!” Of course, that line was met with a large standing ovation.

He said that a partisan backlash was not enough, though.  “We don’t need a Republican majority, we need a conservative majority.”

Pence said that the job of the American President was not to manage decline but to reverse it, speaking of a phrase that he had heard around Washington in reference to what President Obama was doing with the economy.

He said that we should do whatever is necessary to get the job done and come home safe in Afghanistan and Iraq.  This means that terrorists should be subject to military tribunals and that they should stay at Guantanamo Bay.  (standing ovation)

He then made a clear point that “America stands with Israel.” (standing ovation)

Our relationship with China should be exemplified by one arm stretching forward in trade while the other rests on the holster.

Freedom to succeed must include the freedom to fail and we must return incentives to the American people.  We need across-the-board tax relief.  If we get government out of the way, America will come roaring back.

We must defend marriage and, if need be, in the constitution.  He went further to say that we must protect life which was followed by yet another standing ovation.

He said that funding for embryonic stem-cell research should end along with all funding for Planned Parenthood which was followed by yet another standing ovation.

He closed with very powerful lines.

“This is our moment, now is the time.”

“Do whatever you can.”

Summary

All of that was before lunch time.  I think if I write any more tonight my fingers will fall off and I’m sure your eyes would appreciate a rest.  I will pick back up with the second half of Day 2 of CPAC 2010 next time.

Monday, February 22

CPAC 2010: Day 1

What a weekend! CPAC 2010 was a conservative getaway filled with great speakers and an environment unlike any other.  The energy that filled the rooms of the Marriot Wardman Park Hotel was indeed a far cry from the doldrums the movement found itself in merely a year ago when critics cried out that conservatism had died.  No speaker missed a chance to make fun of those claims and, instead, all seemed to relish in the movement’s new-found momentum.

Now that I have recovered from the fast pace of getting up early in the morning to ride the Metro out to the events every morning and listening to a grueling schedule of lectures and panels for three days, I am going to go back through my notes and write a detailed analysis of the event.

Marco Rubio

Day one of CPAC got off to a great start with an address from Marco Rubio, the candidate in the Republican primary in Florida challenging Charlie Christ for the Senate seat.  Rubio set the tone for the event which tried to distance itself from the traditional establishment within the Republican Party represented by Christ and instead situate itself with the principles of conservatism represented by Rubio.

Rubio started out exalting the Tea Parties as the “single greatest political pushback in American history.” He highlighted the importance of 2010 as a “referendum on the very identity of America.” In an obvious jab at his opponent in the Republican primary, Rubio said that the US Senate already has one Arlen Specter too many and that the nation did not need two Democratic Parties.

Rubio received a standing ovation for his statement that Americans want leaders to fight against the “change” being presented right now in Washington.  Instead, he suggested a long list of priorities that the Senate should be focusing on:

  • Cut taxes across the board,
  • Eliminate death and capital gains taxes
  • Lower corporate taxes
  • Stop cap-and-trade
  • Trust American innovation
  • Put consumers in charge of healthcare spending
  • Lawsuit abuse reform
  • Get serious about getting control of National Debt
  • Do whatever it takes for however long it takes to defeat Islamic terrorism
  • Put captured terrorists in military tribunals at Guantanamo Bay (big standing ovation)

He moved on to tell a little bit of his life story.  His parents were exiles from a place where they were limited in life.  There was a cap on how far they could go no matter how hard they worked.  He made the point that America is different because the dreams that are impossible everywhere else are possible here.  He closed by saying that he owes everything to God, his parent’s sacrifices, and the United States of America.  His speech was followed by an extended standing ovation from the crowd.

Sen. Jim DeMint – South Carolina

Following Marco Rubio’s speech could have been difficult for many, but Sen. DeMint picked up right where he had left off.  He began by saying that he could use a man like Rubio in the United States Senate which was received with significant applause.

He said that we had reached a critical mass of conservative hope and change and that it had become the American people vs. the Democrats and he liked those odds.

He gave a plug for his web site, www.senateconservatives.com, and called for a balanced budget and a one-year moratorium on earmarks.  He noted that the borrower is slave to the lender.

Also, once again in an obvious slap to moderate Republicans in races across the country, DeMint said that he would “rather have 30 Marco Rubios in the Senate than 60 Arlen Specters.”

He listed Marco Rubio (FL), Chuck DeVore (CA), Mike Williams (TX), and Pat Toomey (PA) as better kinds of Republicans who will fight the conservative fight alongside him.

He then went on to list the qualities needed in the 2012 President, a position his name has been mentioned for.

  • Can’t govern from a teleprompter
  • Federal government must do less, not more
  • No more bailouts
  • Will not spend money we don’t have
  • Will not throw out the faith of our fathers
  • Will not give in to terrorists
  • Will stop using other people’s money to impose goodwill on others
  • Will return power, people, and money to states

State Rep. Josh Mandel - Ohio

Josh Mandel is one of the youngest office-holders in the country.  At CPAC, he told his story of how much hard work can achieve despite all expectations.

He first ran for city council at the age of 18 and was elected because of his hard work ethic.  He knocked on the doors of every voter in the district and was elected despite all of the naysayers.

Mandel had also enlisted in the United States Marines and was deployed to Iraq.  After he returned, he proposed legislation to reduce property taxes even though the others said it couldn’t be done.  He fought for it anyway and went to the people, hundreds of whom showed up for the next city council meeting.  Even though the other city council members told him he would be embarrassed, his legislation passed by a vote of 6-1.

Then, he decided to run for the state legislature in a district partially represented in Congress by Dennis Kucinich.  He knocked on 19,679 doors and won the election once again defying all expectations.

In 2007, he volunteered to return to service in Iraq despite the option to stay and serve in the legislature.  In 2008, when he returned, he was challenged by an opponent who labeled Mandel an absentee legislator.  Needless to say, he was reelected with over 70% of the vote.

Mandel held up the pair of shoes he wore out on the campaign trail, how worn down they were, and told of how he keeps them mounted on the wall behind his desk so that people who visit him in his office see the holes in them and how worn down they are and are reminded of the work he puts into his office every day.

He left the audience with two commitments he has made and charged the audience to do the same:

  1. Sand on principle.  Don’t blindly follow the leaders.
  2. Don’t be outworked.

Dick Armey

Dick Armey is a name from the past for many of us, but he demonstrated in his speech at CPAC that he still knows a thing or two about the political climate in the country.

He charged President Obama and the Democrats in control in Washington of aiming to redistribute income, knowing how to take advantage of bad times by claiming them as catastrophes and using them as excuse to gain control.

He said that, despite Democratic aims, the private sector pulls the government, not the other way around.  Using some good ole Texas logic, he noted that “when a jockey is fatter than the horse, you will lose the race.”

Liz Cheney

Dick Cheney’s daughter Liz presented an expert dismantling of President Obama’s handling of the war against terror.  Perhaps one of the best lines of the day was when she quoted her daughter who, upon hearing news talk about shutting down Guantanamo Bay, asked, “Is President Obama really trying to bring terrorists into the United States?”

She said that the administration should focus a little more on interrogating terrorists and a little less time convicting CIA officials who she said kept us safe after 9/11 and are patriots.

She went into detail of how the enhanced interrogation program that has received so much attention was shut down by President Obama, but he did not follow up to ensure it was replaced.  Instead, he has focused on other things and, to the best of her knowledge, not a single terrorists has been interrogated while they have been busy in other places.

She noted the ties that Yemen had to all recent terror attacks and noted with disgust a recent statement from administration officials that they were shocked to see Yemen connections to another attack.

She received a standing ovation for proclaiming, “President Obama, you will never silence us!”

Then, she mentioned her father who she said she usually talked to before giving a big speech.  This time, she brought him with her.

Dick Cheney

The former Vice President received one of the warmest welcomes of the whole conference, a long standing ovation perhaps excited most of all because nobody knew he was coming.

He started by saying that a welcome like that was almost enough to make him want to run for office which was greeted by more applause.  He then said it wasn’t quite enough, though.  He continued by talking about how proud he was of his daughters and that there comes a time to step aside and let the next generation take charge. 

“2010,” he said, “is gonna be a phenomenal year.” He then predicted that Barack Obama would be a one-term President which was, of course, followed by a standing ovation.

Sen. Scott Brown - Massachusetts

Sen. Brown was met with a lot of enthusiasm by the CPAC crowd which showed much appreciation for the fact that he had taken Ted Kennedy’s seat for Republicans and had provided a spark for the conservative movement.

Aside from mentioning that he had indeed driven there in his truck, there was not a whole lot of substance to the speech to report.

Mitt Romney

One of the frontrunners for the nomination in 2012, Romney provided a sneak peak into his strategy for election.

He began with one of the best delivered jokes of the entire conference.  After saying he had just arrived from the Vancouver Olympics, he asked if everybody had heard the news that the gold medal had been stripped from American Lindsey Vonn.  He briefly paused to a gasp from the crowd.  He then explained that it had been determined that President Obama had been going down hill faster than she had.

The humor didn’t end there.  He said that President Obama giving himself a B+ for his first year was the biggest exaggeration since Al Gore’s invention of the internet.

After even going so far as to defend President Bush, which hasn’t really been done by any politician since about 2006, he began to attack President Obama’s agenda.  “Obama called his agenda ambitious, I call it reckless.”

“America,” he said, “is not better off than it was $1.8 trillion ago.

He then laid out what seems to be his preliminary platform.

  • Health coverage for the uninsured should be a state issue
  • The answer for healthcare is market incentives
  • Truth trumps hope
  • People shape enterprises
  • People shape countries
  • Founders shaped country built around freedom of the people
  • We are a nation of pioneers

He then classified the Democrats currently in charge as “liberal neo-monarchists.” He said that they are trying to take control of the country and, while pounding the podium with his fist, shouted, “We won’t let ‘em do it!”  He received a large standing ovation for the statement which was followed by a strong closing line once again attacking Pres. Obama.

“America has been a force for good like no other in the world and for that we make no apologies!”

Rep. Thaddeus McCotter – Michigan

The contrast between Mitt Romney’s energetic speech and what followed from Rep. McCotter could not be greater.  In a tone that would have fit right in to the funeral predicted by liberals for conservatism one year ago, Rep. McCotter stated the grave nature of the policies enacted by Democrats in DC.  Unfortunately, the only thing I took away from the speech was how utterly depressing his speech was.

Rep. John Boehner – Ohio

Introduced as the next Speaker of the House, Rep. Boehner received a large ovation upon his introduction.  He promised that, if given the majority later this year, they will run the House differently from both Republicans and Democrats in the past.

First of all, they will get the reform started after the Republican Revolution in 1994 going again.  They will post every bill online for at least 72 hours prior to the vote.  They will put cameras in the Rules Committee meetings.  They will outlaw “monuments to me,” which is when politicians get their names put on buildings or other things they earmarked the funding for.  He also said more ideas could be found at http://gopleader.gov/readthebill.

He also said that, for now, he will continue to insist that Democrats start over on healthcare legislation.  He also said that 340 out of 435 House races across the country have Republican candidates already and it was his aim to challenge every single one.

He has also created a web site with more information regarding his agenda at http://freedomproject.org/

He said that he will not attempt to co-opt the Tea Parties.  Instead, he said that Republicans will respect them, listen to them, and walk among them.  This was greeted by significant applause.

He closed by stating that he hoped to be open, transparent, and to listen for good ideas.  He left with a standing ovation.

Wayne LaPierre

The final speaker of Day One was Wayne Lapierre, Executive VP and CEO of the NRA.  A little out of place, he spoke a lot about the fight that took place under the Clinton administration and made only passing references to the current administration.  This was highlighted by playing many clips from Meet the Press and other television news programs from the 90s in which he had spoken out against Clinton’s policies including a controversial statement regarding Clinton’s intentions of allowing people to be killed for political purposes.

He noted that all of the laws needed to protect people from gun crimes were already on the books, but they were not being enforced then and still aren’t today.  He said the key is not new laws, but enforcement.

He said the NRA is going to go in front of the Supreme Court soon with a case that would incorporate the second amendment to cities and states by applying to them a ruling that only applies in federal districts currently.

Summary

Overall, Day One of CPAC 2010 was a great way to kick off a great weekend.  There were several electric moments from the passionate speech of Marco Rubio to the surprise introduction of Dick Cheney.  It was great to hear from such a wide range of conservative leaders of today and tomorrow and see that they are concentrating on returning the Republican parties to the fiscally conservative roots from which it came.

Wednesday, February 17

2010 Election: Reset

I have gotten a little ahead of myself by going into individual analyses of competitive races, without really going into much detail setting up the score and what the stakes are. To do that, I have taken all 36 elections and went ahead and, without any calculations, purely from a quick observation of Wikipedia and RealClearPolitics, made some early calls. I left all of the races that have been concentrated on by RealClearPolitics to delve into later and read quick summaries of the races on Wikipedia to determine the most likely outcome of the least competitive races. Most of the races feature long-time incumbents with little challenge if any from the opposite party. A few of the races have significant favorites, but still felt like they were competitive enough to call leans. With all this in mind, let's look at the latest states that I have called:

Alabama - Republican
Alaska - Republican
Arizona - Lean Republican
Georgia - Republican
Hawaii - Democrat
Idaho - Republican
Iowa - Lean Republican
Kansas - Republican
Maryland - Democrat
New York (Schumer) - Democrat
Oklahoma - Republican
Oregon - Lean Democrat
South Carolina - Republican
South Dakota - Lean Republican
Vermont - Democrat
Utah - Republican

Now, let's update the standings:

Current count (including leans):

Democrats: 45
Independents: 2
Republicans: 35

[*Edit* Wanted to note that I count Independents as Democrats in most of my calculations because despite the interesting theories surrounding the possibility of Joe Lieberman switching over to caucus with Republicans should the majority swing in the balance, I find it more likely he sticks with Democrats. Despite recent events he still has a lot more in common with them than with Republicans.]

That leaves us with 18 seats left in play. The magic number for Democrats is 4. If they can get 4 out of those 18 seats, they will hold onto the majority. Can Republicans pull off their magic number of 16? It's certainly a long road, but with the current political climate, it's all down hill!

My plans for the next week:

The Senate analysis will be put on hold for a little while as, tomorrow, I will be attending CPAC where I will take good notes and come back here with daily reports. After the dust settles from CPAC, I will resume the Senate analysis and hopefully get some more projections done! After the Senate is complete, I will move onto the House and try to get a handle on the situation there.

2010 Election: California Senate

Incumbent: Barbara Boxer (D)
Challengers: Tom Campbell (R)
Carly Fiorina (R)
Chuck DeVore (R)
Key Dates: Primary - June 8, 2010
PVR Projection: Lean Democratic

Background

One of the biggest signs of the extent to which Democrats are threatened in the 2010 elections is the fact that Barbara Boxer is facing significant opposition. Boxer has represented California in the Senate since 1993, prior to which she served in the House of Representatives for 10 years. In fact, in her most recent bid for re-election, she received more than 6.9 million votes, more than any Senate candidate ever.


Republican Opposition

Still, Boxer is in for a challenge this year. Three Republicans are fighting for the chance to challenge Boxer in November and there are some big horses in the race.

First, there is Chuck DeVore, a state assemblyman who resigned from his position as minority whip over an agreement made by party leaders to the largest tax hike in the history of any state in the country. He declared his intentions to run for the Senate early on and is representing much of the Tea Party message that is fed up with out of control spending. He made an appearance on Glenn Beck's television program in which he clearly found his market. (If you want to see it, go here http://www.chuckdevore.com.) He proudly displays the interview on his home page.

Also appearing on Beck's show was Carly Fiorina, another Republican candidate for the seat. She also takes a hard line on taxing and spending. She has signed the taxpayer protection pledge, promising "no new taxes on anything." She believes that this is essential to reign in federal spending.

The most recent entrant in the Republican field and already the leader in every poll is Tom Campbell. A big name in California politics, Campbell was once thought to be a contender for the gubernatorial election coming up. Campbell has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago where his faculty advisor was Milton Friedman. He graduated Magna Cum Laude from Harvard Law School and was a proffesor of law at Stanford. He represented Silicon Valley in Congress from 1988-1998. During his tenure as State Finance Director, California's budget was balanced with no tax increases and no new borrowing.

The Polls

With the recent entry of Tom Campbell into the race, only very recent polls serve as strong indicators of where things actually stand. In the Republican Primary, an average of the 2 most recent polls by PPIC and Field puts the race like this:

Tom Campbell - 28.5%
Carly Firoina - 20.5%
Chuck DeVore - 7%

Obviously, this race has a lot left in it, but Campbell seems to have a significant lead, especially considering the head start the other two candidates had on him.

In potential matchup polling, there are only three polls which include all three Republican candidates.

The averages for these polls stand as follows:

Barbara Boxer - 46%
Tom Campbell - 40%

Barbara Boxer - 48%
Carly Fiorina - 39%

Barbara Boxer - 48.3%
Chuck DeVore - 38.3%

(*These matchups should be viewed with a significant amount of context. Barbara Boxer is a true incumbent with all incumbent advantages. This early in the race, she should be expected to have a lead by default simply because her challengers have yet to have time to get their name out. Still, current data is all we can look at until somebody invents a time machine. I look forward to watching this race as it develops to see how the numbers change.)

Projection

When these numbers are put into my calculations, the PVR Projected Probabilities of victory for each party are as follows:

Republican Projection Score: 39%
Democratic Projection Score: 47%

This places the California Senate race as a Democratic +8%, making it a Democratic Lean.



http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=326688
http://boxer.senate.gov/en/senator
http://chuckdevore.com
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,585264,00.html
http://www.campbell.org/meet-tom/biography

Tuesday, February 16

2010 Election: Colorado Senate

Incumbent: Michael Bennet (D)
Challengers: Andrew Romanoff (D)
Jane Norton (R)
Tom Wiens (R)
Ken Buck (R)
Key Dates: Primary – August 10
PVR Projection: Lean Republican



Background



Although he is an incumbent, Michael Bennet has never participated in an election of this size. After the previous Senator, Ken Salazar, was appointed President Obama’s Secretary of the Interior, Bennet was chosen by the Governor of Colorado to hold the office until the November election. Prior to his service as Senator, Bennet had been Denver’s Superintendent of Education and Chief of Staff for the Mayor of Denver.



Democratic Challenger



Interestingly, Bennet is being challenged within his own party by former speaker of the Colorado House Andrew Romanoff. While Romanoff trails in fundraising in no small part due to his pledge not to accept any PAC money, one recent poll put him in the lead. The two candidates are meeting for their first debate tonight.



Republican Opposition



The Republican field is even messier. Three primary candidates have emerged to challenge for the Senate seat in November.



Jane Norton, former Lt. Gov. of Colorado, has gotten off to a fast start for the nomination. Still, she faces strong opposition within her own party. She has already managed to get on the bad side of former Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo who blasted Norton publicly for her “pro-amnesty rhetoric.” His criticism stems from a comment made by Norton that the country needs a “workable immigration system.” Norton’s greatest strength, perhaps, is her last name. Her husband, Tom, is a former U.S. attorney. Also in the Norton family tree is former state attorney general and Interior Secretary Gale Norton, former state Senate President Tom Norton, and University of Northern Colorado President Kay Norton.



Trying to overcome the name advantage are a pair of Republican candidates. Tom Wiens is trying to position himself as the outsider candidate in this, the year of outsiders. He has already put more than $640,000 of his own money into the campaign, claiming a need to balance the playing field. Wiens has also pledged not to serve more than two terms, if elected.



Also in the race is Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck. Buck is taking a hard-line conservative stance by supporting a balanced budget amendment, a permanent ban on earmarks, and a staunch anti-illegal immigration position. His fame comes primarily from launching a probe into the identities of thousands of undocumented workers only to have the move ruled illegal and the program shut down.



The Polls



While polls are hard to come by for individual primaries, much can be gained from polls that focus on all possible eventual matchups in the general election. The following graph demonstrates the most recent results.






The problem with the Colorado polling data is that all but one poll released since September of last year have come from Rasmussen which has simply been different from other polling agencies recently. It will be interesting to see if they turn out to be correct but much of the discrepancy comes from the estimation of likely voters in the midterm elections. Rasmussen has tended to suggest larger victories for Republicans than other polling firms.



With this caveat in mind, we can look at the above polling figures and see that Jane Norton is the clear leader. At this point, She holds a 9 point lead over Michael Bennet and an 8 point lead over Andrew Romanoff. Both Wiens and Buck still possess a lead over the Democratic opponents, but only by 2 points in all scenarios. This position is reversed, though, in the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll from January 13th. In that poll, all contests were a statistical tie with a slight edge possibly going towards the Democratic Candidates.



Projection



The projection for this race will be a mathematical calculation based off of the recent polling averages. The chances of each candidate winning their primary is computed based off of comparing success against common opponents in the polls and averaging results. Then, the probability of success for each party in each scenario is multiplied by the probability of each scenario occurring. This will result in an overall probability for each party. This overall probability will be the projection score of the race.



A probability will be coded under the following metric:



< +5% – Dead Heat



+6 - +10% – Lean



> +10% – Solid



After calculating, the probabilities for the Colorado Senate race are as follows:



Republican Projection Score: 44%



Democratic Projection Score: 38%



This places the Colorado Senate Race as a Republican +6%, making it a Republican Lean.





http://www.kdvr.com/news/sns-ap-co--coloradosenate-debate,0,3205791.story



http://bennet.senate.gov/about/



http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kunc/news.newsmain/article/1/0/1612933/Regional/Romanoff..Bennet..Square.Off.Tonight



http://www.cologop.org/



http://www.thedenverdailynews.com/article.php?aID=7317



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/15/jane-norton-senate-run-ta_n_286831.html



http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/32836.html



http://www.npr.org/blogs/politicaljunkie/2010/01/your_2010_election_calendar.html

2010 Election: Senate Overview

Before going into the nuts and bolts of individual elections, I would like to provide an overview of the United States Senate: where it is and where it has been.

The US Senate is made up of 100 Senators, two from each state. The Senate was the product of a number of compromises when the founding fathers framed the Constitution. On one hand, the Senate is meant to represent the states more so than individual citizens. Originally appointed by state legislatures, Senators have only been directly elected in most states since 1913 after the ratification of the 17th Amendment. Still, Senators are elected by entire state populations, not districts like Representatives, which makes them further removed from the interests of the individual voter, forced to represent a broader range of ideas. Senators, it was thought, would represent a more elite form of thinking, not to be swayed too quickly by the fleeting passions of the masses. Further adding to this notion was a long term of 6 years for all Senators. They rotate these terms so that one third of the Senate is up for re-election every two years. This allows for Senators to spend more time governing and less time worrying about re-election.

Also important in the compromise that produced the Senate was the debate between states with large populations and states with small populations. The smaller states like Delaware were afraid that the large states like Virginia would control a body proportioned by population and their voice would never be heard. The Senate is proportioned equally among all states regardless of population, giving the smallest states the same voice in legislation as the largest.

The Senate is also much more given to parliamentary procedure and tricks than the House. Specifically, the filibuster, though rarely used in practice, allows for any Senator to speak for as long as he would like to hold up a vote so long as the opponents cannot muster a “supermajority” of 60 votes for cloture to force a vote on the bill. This allows for minority parties to present greater opposition than their counterparts in the House but also makes it much harder to get controversial bills passed. Once again, the Senate demonstrates its tendency to moderate and slow down the legislative machine on Capitol Hill.

As we turn our eyes to the 2010 elections, it is important to understand this institutional framework of the Senate, as well as recent trends in party control. The graph below shows the share of seats among Democrats and Republicans (third parties were thrown out in order to simplify the data) since the end of the Civil War.



As you can see, despite brief periods of strong partisan control after the Civil War and the Great Depression, very modest gaps have existed between majority and minority parties. Still, there is a very clear pattern of consistent Republican majority right up until the Great Depression after which Democrats have had a significant advantage. The last 30 years, however, have been a very tight tug-of war with neither party demonstrating a clear advantage for more than three or four elections. In fact, the 2008 election gave Democrats the first supermajority since 1979.

Recent trending would suggest that Republicans should begin to see the pendulum swing back in their direction; however, this does not mean that they will regain control of the Senate. The majority party has only lost more than 5 seats three times since 1979 out of 16 elections.

This election is certainly shaping up to be an interesting one, though, with Democratic Senators retiring left and right and a Congressional approval ratings as low as 11% according to the most recent Economist survey!

So what exactly is at stake in this election? 36 seats will be voted on in 2010, not counting the Republican victory in Massachusetts. The year began with Democrats holding 60 seats and Republicans holding 40. That distribution looked like this:



The Independents, of course, caucused with the Democrats providing them their 60 vote supermajority.

The victory of Scott Brown made the distribution 59-41 and broke the Democrat supermajority. Now, with 36 seats potentially up for grabs, the distribution looks more like this:



Obviously, Democrats still hold a significant advantage. There is enough lee-way, though, that Republicans could make a significant move.

Of the 36 seats up for reelection, it is an even split of 18 Republican and Democratic seats. An overall view of this race would not seem to indicate a favorable disposition for Republicans to make a move, but Republicans feel better about holding their seats than Democrats do about holding theirs. Over the next week, I will analyze individual races that will make or break the 2010 election for both parties. I will project a winner in each race and, after compiling them all, project the new distribution of seats in the Senate Chamber of the 112th Congress.

I will begin by taking a look at the Colorado Senate Election.



*Information obtained from various sources including Wikipedia and CongresOL.com*

Monday, February 15

2010: Republican Revolution Part 2?

OK.. OK.. So there is no Newt Gingrich touting the Contract with America, but could the elections of 2010 go down in the history books as the year that the Tea Party led to a complete power reversal in Congress? I think it is possible.  I will take time over the next few days to analyze both the House and the Senate and provide a summary of the most interesting races and make a few predictions along the way.

All of this should be taken with a huge grain of salt because there is a lot that will happen between now and November.  Will healthcare get passed? If so, under what conditions? Will another issue step into the forefront? Will the economy show signs of improvement or continue to falter? So many questions and so few answers.  Still, it is interesting to look at where we stand right now and adjust as new information arises.

First, I will analyze the Senate races of interest and make predictions there.  Then, I will move onto the House races.  My aim is to go into these analyses with no expectations and educate both myself and any reader on each of the competitive races and provide an overall outlook.

I would also like to develop a mechanism to be updated with the latest polling data from Pollster and RealClearPolitics to provide an up-to-the minute scoring system for the races so that I can return to this analysis periodically between now and November with updated predictions.

Now, I will begin work and return with Senate predictions.