2010 Election: California Senate

Incumbent: Barbara Boxer (D)
Challengers: Tom Campbell (R)
Carly Fiorina (R)
Chuck DeVore (R)
Key Dates: Primary - June 8, 2010
PVR Projection: Lean Democratic

Background

One of the biggest signs of the extent to which Democrats are threatened in the 2010 elections is the fact that Barbara Boxer is facing significant opposition. Boxer has represented California in the Senate since 1993, prior to which she served in the House of Representatives for 10 years. In fact, in her most recent bid for re-election, she received more than 6.9 million votes, more than any Senate candidate ever.


Republican Opposition

Still, Boxer is in for a challenge this year. Three Republicans are fighting for the chance to challenge Boxer in November and there are some big horses in the race.

First, there is Chuck DeVore, a state assemblyman who resigned from his position as minority whip over an agreement made by party leaders to the largest tax hike in the history of any state in the country. He declared his intentions to run for the Senate early on and is representing much of the Tea Party message that is fed up with out of control spending. He made an appearance on Glenn Beck's television program in which he clearly found his market. (If you want to see it, go here http://www.chuckdevore.com.) He proudly displays the interview on his home page.

Also appearing on Beck's show was Carly Fiorina, another Republican candidate for the seat. She also takes a hard line on taxing and spending. She has signed the taxpayer protection pledge, promising "no new taxes on anything." She believes that this is essential to reign in federal spending.

The most recent entrant in the Republican field and already the leader in every poll is Tom Campbell. A big name in California politics, Campbell was once thought to be a contender for the gubernatorial election coming up. Campbell has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago where his faculty advisor was Milton Friedman. He graduated Magna Cum Laude from Harvard Law School and was a proffesor of law at Stanford. He represented Silicon Valley in Congress from 1988-1998. During his tenure as State Finance Director, California's budget was balanced with no tax increases and no new borrowing.

The Polls

With the recent entry of Tom Campbell into the race, only very recent polls serve as strong indicators of where things actually stand. In the Republican Primary, an average of the 2 most recent polls by PPIC and Field puts the race like this:

Tom Campbell - 28.5%
Carly Firoina - 20.5%
Chuck DeVore - 7%

Obviously, this race has a lot left in it, but Campbell seems to have a significant lead, especially considering the head start the other two candidates had on him.

In potential matchup polling, there are only three polls which include all three Republican candidates.

The averages for these polls stand as follows:

Barbara Boxer - 46%
Tom Campbell - 40%

Barbara Boxer - 48%
Carly Fiorina - 39%

Barbara Boxer - 48.3%
Chuck DeVore - 38.3%

(*These matchups should be viewed with a significant amount of context. Barbara Boxer is a true incumbent with all incumbent advantages. This early in the race, she should be expected to have a lead by default simply because her challengers have yet to have time to get their name out. Still, current data is all we can look at until somebody invents a time machine. I look forward to watching this race as it develops to see how the numbers change.)

Projection

When these numbers are put into my calculations, the PVR Projected Probabilities of victory for each party are as follows:

Republican Projection Score: 39%
Democratic Projection Score: 47%

This places the California Senate race as a Democratic +8%, making it a Democratic Lean.



http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=326688
http://boxer.senate.gov/en/senator
http://chuckdevore.com
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,585264,00.html
http://www.campbell.org/meet-tom/biography