Incumbent: Blanche Lincoln (D)
Challengers: Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D)
Rep. John Boozman (R)
Jim Holt (R)
Sen. Gilbert Baker (R)
Sen. Kim Hendren (R)
etc…
Key Dates: Primary – May 18, 2010
PVR Projection: Lean Republican
Summary
Arkansas is just plain complicated. I mean, a Congressional race where the incumbent is running for re-election just isn’t supposed to be this complicated. You have Blanche Lincoln (D) running for re-election. She is opposed in the primary by a couple different opponents, primarily Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
On the Republican side, it gets really messy. I am not even sure who all is running. Out in front is the sitting Congressman for the 3rd District, John Boozman. No Republican primary polls are available, as far as I can tell, but judging by comparative success in head-to-head matchups, Jim Holt is right on his tail. Holt lost the Senate race in 2004 to Lincoln, receiving 44% of the vote having only spent $151,000 compared to Lincoln’s $6.4 million. He seems to be giving it more of a go this time around. Then, there is Gilbert Baker, a member of the Arkansas State Senate since 2000. Behind him is Arkansas Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren. The list goes on, but I would be willing to bet the nominee comes from that group.
Polls
Because of the complexity of the race, there are lots of numbers to look at. Rasmussen and Daily Kos have actually done a good job of providing a lot of good head-to-head polls. Unfortunately, primary polls are scarce – nonexistent for Republicans!
So, I will do the best I can do with what I’ve got. One thing that seems very clear is that there is a strong support for the Republican, whoever it is. In fact, none of the matchups featuring Republicans I list here show Democrats in the lead.
Projection
The PVR projected probabilities of victory for each party in the Arkansas Senate race are as follows:
Republican Projection Score: 47%
Democratic Projection Score: 38%
This makes the Arkansas Senate race a Republican +9, or a Republican Lean.
http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/
http://senatorgilbertbaker.com/biography-senator-gilbert-baker
http://www.arkleg.state.ar.us/assembly/2009/R/Pages/MemberProfile.aspx?member=Hendren
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