2010 Election: Senate and House Projection

Ok.  I got tired of projecting states one at a time with full write ups.  Instead, I decided to do all of my projections at once.  So, here it goes!

Senate

Connecticut – Solid Democrat
Delaware – Solid Republican
Florida – Solid Republican
Illinois – Dead Heat
Indiana – Solid Republican
Kentucky – Lean Republican
Louisiana – Solid Republican
Missouri – Lean Republican
Nevada – Solid Republican
New Hampshire – Lean Republican
New York (Gillibrand) – Solid Democrat
North Carolina – Solid Republican
North Dakota – Solid Republican
Ohio – Dead Heat
Pennsylvania – Lean Republican
Washington – Lean Democrat
Wisconsin – Solid Democrat

Body Count
Democrats – 48
Lean Democrats – 2
Dead Heat – 4
Lean Republican – 8
Republicans – 38

Or, counting leans…

Democrats – 50
Dead Heat - 4
Republicans – 46

That leaves California, Colorado, Illinois, and Ohio up for grabs.  Republicans must hold onto all of their current leans and sweep these four states to get to 50.  Even then, Democrats would hold a virtual majority with Joe Biden serving as the tie breaker.  That is, unless Joe Lieberman fools around.  You never can tell with ole Lieberman.  In any case, Republicans could definitely make it interesting, but they have a long way to go.

House of Representatives

Based on RealClearPolitics classifications:

Strong Democrats – 197
Lean Democrats – 15
Dead Heat – 30
Lean Republicans – 19
Strong Republicans – 174

If you count the leans and split the dead even districts 50-50…

Democrats – 227
Republicans – 208

There is still wiggle room, though.  Republicans could take a majority in the House by picking up 83% of the seats that are locked in a virtual tie in the polls and holding onto their leans.  While it is certainly still a long shot at this point, it is definitely within the realm of possibility.