It’s been a while since I looked at my Senate projections, so I decided to go back to my previous projections and update to the latest polls before moving on to further projections. Sure enough, there have been some changes.
California
Previous Call: Lean Democrat
New Call: Dead Heat
As I had suspected, the polls do show that the race in California is tightening. So much so, in fact, that I am now calling this race a Dead Heat. My predictive calculus now gives this score:
Republicans: 42%
Democrats: 44%
Obviously, there is still lots of room to work. It appears as though Tom Campbell gives Republicans their best shot in November. He has pulled even with Boxer in the polls. He also leads the latest Republican primary polls. It is all still too close to call, though. This will be a very interesting race to watch.
Colorado
Previous Call: Lean Republican
New Call: Dead Heat
It appears the same is happening in Colorado, which is slightly less expected. Here is the new score:
Republicans: 42%
Democrats: 41%
Republicans still hold the lead, but is certainly within the margin of error. Jane Norton appears to give Republicans their best chance with a slight edge over both Democratic candidates in head to head matchups. None of the other Republicans can say that.
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