2010 Elections: Update

I have finally gotten all moved back in here in Jackson and was able to update the polling numbers for my projections in the House and Senate. Things are definitely looking better and better for Republicans.

Senate

Arkansas polls have moved slightly in the direction of Republicans since the last update. This has led to me moving Arkansas from Lean Republican to Solid Republican.

Florida, on the other hand, is throwing a monkey wrench into everything. Crist's announcement of running as an Independent has put this seat more in play than previously thought. Still, Rubio and Crist are both running slightly ahead of Meek, the Democratic challenger, even when all three are included in one poll. I am going to treat this race like it is a Republican victory whether Rubio or Crist wins. While there is certainly an ideological difference, I think it is safe to say Crist would caucus with the Republicans in 2011 which is what we are really concerned about when it comes to majority control in the Senate. With all of this in mind, my new projections have Florida as a Lean Republican. It's still looking good for Republicans, but not as solid as it was before Crist's announcement.

New Hampshire has moved from Lean Republican to Solid Republican. Ayotte appears to be pulling away from Hodes.

Washington is now too close to call. I have categorized it as a Dead Heat. It appears that Rossi, a Republican candidate, is catching up to Patty Murray in the polls. In the most recent SurveyUSA poll, Rossi is actually beating Murray by 10 points! Other Republican candidates are pulling closer as well in recent polls, but not like Rossi. This race is still very tough to gauge, though, because there are 5 significant Republican contenders with no polling data available on the Republican primary. My calculations assume that Rossi's surge in popularity among general voters is reflective of support among Republicans.

With these new projections, the Senate projection now stands at 49-46 in favor of Democrats with 5 races too close to call.

House

This is where the really good news for Republicans can be found. Since my last update, things have really begun to fall apart for House Democrats. According to RealClearPolitics, the projections now break down like this:

Democrats: 175
Lean Democrats: 28
Dead Heat: 35
Lean Republicans: 23
Republicans: 174

My new projection, therefore, splitting the Dead Heat races 50/50 is Democrats 221, Republicans 215.

It just keeps getting closer and closer.